'N. Korea distances China, courts US'

'N. Korea distances China, courts US'

By Kang Hyun-kyung Despite North Korea’s heavy reliance on China for trade and materials needed for its people’s daily lives, the country that can have real influence on the North’s course of action is, ironically enough, the United States. A set of leaked U.S. diplomatic cables by the whistleblower website WikiLeaks found a unique pattern in North Korea’s diplomatic moves. In a memo reported by the Kyodo News Agency, China made a secret proposal on tripartite talks with the United States and North Korea to resolve the North’s nuclear ambition last April. The tripartite talks are aimed at replacing the existing six-party talks. China appeared to have made the proposal against the backdrop of North Korea’s “preferring” to talk with the United States over China on its nuclear program. In another WikiLeaks document, a Mongolian official was quoted as saying that former U.S. President Bill Clinton had a good personal understanding with the North Korean leader. “Forward motion stopped during the Bush administration but was now able to proceed because of President Clinton’s recent involvement in a personal capacity, because President Obama is of the same party, and because former first lady Hillary Clinton is now the secretary of state,” the embassy in Ulan Bator reported in August 2009, citing the official. In a separate memo, a Chinese official was quoted as saying China’s protest over North Korea’s provocations had no effect. “The only country that can make progress with the North Koreans is the United States,” he said. Chaos adds unpredictability Another leaked document said that North Korea’s “Dear Leader” tended to reverse policies after having a stroke in 2008. A power struggle continues in full swing there at a time when the “condensed” leadership succession from Kim to his third son, Jong-un, was underway. North Korea watchers labeled the leadership succession as a dangerous period where the North could undertake a series of provocations and vow further threats. “Different factions are competing for Kim Jong-il’s attention, making it difficult for him to set a firm, clear direction,” a high-ranking Chinese official, who met Kim Jong-il last December, said. Competition among officials inside the North adds unpredictability, making it difficult for South Korean policymakers to chart an effective deterrence strategy. Another confidential memo, which summarized the results of U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell’s meeting with North Korea experts here in February, noted that the heir in his twenties will face a formidable challenge if his father dies. “There are many reasons to doubt that Kim Jong-un would be able to successfully fend off challenges to his control after his father died,” a North Korea watcher said. The expert was also quoted as saying that Kim Jong-il had 20 years of experience as an official of the North’s Workers’ Party before his father died. “Furthermore, Kim Jong-il had the benefit of years of guidance from his father after he had been officially anointed in 1980s to eventually succeed him. By contrast, Kim Jong-un has had very limited experience.” In a January memo, Yu Myung-hwan, a former South Korean minister of foreign affairs and trade, said that the North had become “increasingly chaotic” and this had led to a number of high-ranking North Korean officials defecting. Yu’s comments came two months after the North implemented currency reform aimed to curb the spread of markets across the nation. The attempt was a failure, leading to soaring prices and making it even more difficult for the people to make ends meet.

hkang@koreatimes.co.kr